A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
President Trump is weighing whether to seize Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil processing facility. The Pentagon has ordered thousands of paratroopers to the Middle East. In a few minutes, we'll hear what those soldiers are trained to do. We start, though, with the potential risks they would face if sent to take over that island. Here's NPR's international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: In terms of physical size, Kharg Island is tiny, only about eight square miles. But it provides a huge economic punch for Iran.
NICOLE GRAJEWSKI: Kharg is, in many ways, the crown jewel of the Iranian economy.
NORTHAM: Nicole Grajewski is a professor at Sciences Po in Paris specializing in Iranian military capabilities. She says more than 90% of Iran's oil exports are funneled through Kharg Island.
GRAJEWSKI: It has been a economic lifeline for the country, but also a symbol of its status as a major oil exporter and one of the real persistent areas of value for the Iranian oil infrastructure and oil system.
NORTHAM: The deployment of thousands of American service personnel is raising speculation the U.S. may try to seize Kharg Island. Caitlin Talmadge is a professor in the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, focusing on U.S. military strategy and operations in the Persian Gulf. Talmadge says she would never underestimate the U.S. military's ability to plan. But seizing and holding Kharg Island less than 20 miles from Iran's heavily defended coastline would be militarily challenging. Iran still has a large arsenal of drones and missiles.
CAITLIN TALMADGE: Even inserting U.S. forces so close to Iran's shores would be risky and carry the potential for casualties. And then there's the question of sustaining that U.S. military presence on the island, which I don't think would be simple, again, because U.S. forces would be within range of Iranian weapons, very close to Iran's shores, which would raise costs and raise casualties.
NORTHAM: The U.S. already bombed the military installations on the island but held back on striking the oil infrastructure. And Talmadge says if it's simply a negotiating tactic, it isn't clear why taking Kharg Island would suddenly pressure Iran to make concessions at this point.
TALMADGE: This is a case where we're talking about a military mission that's in search of a strategic rationale. What are we getting in exchange for doing this? What is the strategic and political result of taking these risks? And that's where my concern lies.
NORTHAM: Talmadge says there's lots of what she calls misguided discussion that seizing Kharg Island would give the U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is about 300 miles to the south. David Goldwyn is president of Goldwyn Global Strategy (ph), an international energy advisory consultancy. He says seizing Kharg Island could backfire.
DAVID GOLDWYN: This would be a hugely provocative step because an attack on the infrastructure, the processing infrastructure on Kharg Island, would likely lead to retaliatory strikes by Iran on processing infrastructure in other countries in the Gulf.
NORTHAM: Goldwyn says that would have an impact on world energy markets.
GOLDWYN: This is a big risk to the market and would likely send prices up, you know, $20, $30 a barrel almost instantaneously if it were to come to pass.
NORTHAM: Grajewski with Sciences Po university says Iran could also launch cyberattacks on the U.S. or instruct their Houthi proxies to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
GRAJEWSKI: The Houthis are very capable of disrupting maritime trade and also targeting U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf.
NORTHAM: Grajewski says Iran could also apply scorched-earth tactics, setting their own oil fields on fire out of desperation. For now, a diplomatic off-ramp still exists but may not stay open for much longer.
Jackie Northam, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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