LEILA FADEL, HOST:
What are the options for U.S. allies in the Middle East who are being hit by Iran's retaliatory strikes? For that, we turn to Yasmine Farouk. She's the project director for the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
YASMINE FAROUK: Thank you for having me.
FADEL: Yasmine, we know that countries like Saudi Arabia had urged against U.S. attacks on Iran. Now that the U.S. has attacked, Iran is attacking Gulf countries - U.S. assets, yes, but also high-rises, ports, hotels, an oil refinery. Is this why they were urging restraint?
FAROUK: There were mainly three reasons why they were urging - actually, four reasons why these countries were urging restraints, and this is one of them. The scenario plannings have been, you know, frequent by Gulf countries, particularly since 2019, when Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's oil refineries. And even before that, Iran has always threatened Gulf countries with these kinds of attacks. But I have to say that the scale of these attacks, in terms of their - you know, the targets themselves being at the heart of city centers or hotels and not being really cautious about casualties is a really surprising and remain shocking, even if it was included in the planning.
But the other reasons why the Gulf countries - and I would say most of them, and particularly those who were very actively trying to mediate between the U.S. and Iran - is that they - not only they knew this was coming, but there was a process, there was a negotiation going on that was promising that had new ideas put on the table. The third reason is because these countries also don't see a U.S. plan for where this is heading. I mean, the United States is changing the objectives of its operation by the day, and even the objective of regime change does not sound very assuring to Gulf countries.
This did not go well in Iraq. This did not go well in Afghanistan, and they will be left to deal with this because they are on Iran's doorstep. The final reason is also because they see this as part of continuous Israeli wars across the region, and they just don't know when and where will it stop.
FADEL: So does this then shift Arab allies in the region's relationship with Washington? I mean, the U.S. has military bases throughout the Gulf as a bulwark against Iran. Now those bases have become targets, and this list of reasons about no clear goal and this concern about Israel and the region, does that compromise how U.S. allies rely on Washington for security?
FAROUK: I don't think so because, you know, we've seen yesterday that in - within their plans to consider what kind of retaliation or response they are going to respond to those Iranian attacks, they are doing it in coordination with the U.S. We've seen a joint statement by all the countries, with the exception of Oman. So the U.S. will remain their strategic ally. We have seen in the past a country like Saudi Arabia asking the U.S. to evacuate its base after the war in Iraq, for example, but I don't see this happening now. I see the contrary happening, coordinating closer with the U.S. to make sure they are well defended and secure.
FADEL: Really quickly - we just have a few seconds - how much influence do Gulf nations have over the U.S.' next steps?
FAROUK: They do have an influence on limiting the scope of this war. They will have an influence in whatever agreement might come about, but we should not overestimate the influence.
FADEL: That's Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group. Thank you for your time.
FAROUK: Thank you so much for inviting me.
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