For the next two weeks, country leaders will be in Antalya, Turkey, for the annual United Nations climate conference, called COP31. This year, the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran will loom over the negotiations. Now in its ninth month, the war has sparked a global energy crisis. The unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz and spiking oil and natural gas prices have laid bare the fragility of relying on fossil fuels.
But this energy crisis – unlike the energy crisis in the 1970s and the one following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – is different, says Kingsmill Bond, an analyst at the energy think tank Ember.
"This is the first time you've really had a global energy shock where you've got really cheap solutions to address it," Bond says.
Those solutions include solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. In recent months, countries around the world have pivoted sharply towards these technologies. Many of them are produced in China and offer economic security, as well as reduced emissions.
The economic case for climate solution technologies will make it easier for countries to support them at the conference, Bond says. "There's much more opportunity, I think, for people to get behind change at COP."
Here are three things you need to know about this year's COP.
It's all about electrification
Climate technologies like solar, batteries and electric vehicles are also called electrification technologies. Bond says that's why some are calling this "the electrification COP."
"The big target that the COP is setting is for the world to increase the electrification rate from around 23% today to around 35% by 2035," Bond says. "So 35 by '35 is the mantra."
These electrification goals assume countries will grow their electricity mix with cleaner renewable energy. Energy experts say that is a reasonable assumption, because that's what has been happening in recent years. Large solar and wind projects provide more cost-competitive energy than natural gas and coal projects, according to financial services firm Lazard.
"Think about solar, wind," says Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. "More green energy will help you decarbonize better and faster."
Roadmap off fossil fuels
As the COP process enters its 31st year, many countries have argued that the U.N. process has not done enough to tackle the single biggest driver of climate change: burning fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have consistently opposed having fossil fuel language in the text of final conference agreements.
In April, more than 50 countries came together to discuss ways to phase out oil, gas, and coal at the First International Conference to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. Conference organizers told NPR the conference was a way to complement the U.N. process.
More than 25 of those nations are developing a legally binding treaty that would advance a phase-out of fossil fuels. Supporters of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative hope more countries will join their cause at COP31.
The U.S. is not in the room
The U.S. State Department told NPR in an email that the U.S. will not be sending a delegation to COP31. They also did not send anyone to last year's COP in Brazil.
The Trump administration has reversed action on climate progress, phasing out subsidies for electric vehicles, solar and wind, reducing regulations for greenhouse gases, and halting renewable energy projects.
Last year, some countries told NPR they were happy that the Trump administration was not at the climate talks. "Generally, it's a good thing they're not here because we have less recalcitrants to deal with," Ralph Regenvanu, minister of climate change of Vanuatu, told NPR then.
But some democratic lawmakers will be at COP31, including Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat representing Rhode Island. Fresh off Democrats' midterm victory sweep, Whitehouse says he and the other lawmakers plan to keep the focus on fossil fuels and a potential carbon pricing mechanism.
" It cannot remain free for the fossil fuel industry to pollute if we want to have any chance of a pathway to climate safety," Whitehouse says.
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