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President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices. But that hasn't happened. Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, record-high intensity of opposition, and voters are blaming him for prices that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy. But the war with Iran and Trump's tariffs were choices that have directly led to increased prices on goods and energy.
The economy is increasingly bifurcated with the wealthy doing well, in large part, because of increasing stock portfolios dominated by AI companies, while regular Americans are turning against AI data centers, struggling because of inflation that is outpacing wages, a middling labor market and interest rates that are creeping higher. Those rates are making it harder to buy a home or a car, making millions of people feel like they're treading water.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed a plurality — 44% — said their finances have mostly stayed the same and another 38% saying their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% said things have actually gotten better for them from a money standpoint.
Add to that the disapproval of the administration's hard-line immigration enforcement tactics, cuts to domestic spending on programs like Medicaid and other health care programs, and the slashing of regulations and the government workforce, and it's angering swing voters and firing up Democrats.
As a result, the president's party is likely to pay the price. Midterms are usually difficult for the president's party to begin with.
History is not on Republicans' side this year
Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained seats in the House in a midterm election. On average, the president's party loses 26 seats in midterm years, and it's worse when a president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's has been. When that's the case, the presidents' parties have lost an average of 35 seats. When they're above 50%, they still lose seats but only 15 on average, 20 seats better than when a president is unpopular.
The fact that presidents' parties lose seats in midterms is something Trump himself has acknowledged multiple times at campaign events.
Meanwhile, Democrats have had political success in this Trump term. They have consistently overperformed in special elections, which are indicators of midterm prowess, and they cleaned up in the 2025 off-year elections. Since then, the political landscape has only gotten worse for Republicans because of the unpopular Iran war that has led to skyrocketing gas prices.
All of that points to Democratic gains this cycle. They are favored to win control of the House, and they are in striking distance of winning the Senate, something that had been seen as a longshot at the beginning of this cycle.
Democrats have potential limitations
While the landscape has undoubtedly moved more in Democrats' direction over the last several months, the extent of the likely potential gains is not clear.
A big reason for that is structural. When looking at the Cook Political Report's ratings, there are about 30 fewer competitive districts — ones rated as lean or toss up — this year than in 2018 when Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 seats in the House.
Mid-decade redistricting has also helped to insulate Republicans this cycle, even if marginally. After all the redistricting fights across the country, with Trump explicitly pushing GOP-led state legislatures to get more Republican seats, an NPR analysis shows Republicans netted an estimated 8-seat advantage out of redistricting.
Depending on how Latinos in South Texas, in particular, vote those gains might be lower.
While Republicans face significant headwinds and the GOP is not viewers favorably, the Democratic Party is also not viewed positively. Democrats have had trouble wrangling a base of voters who should be Democrats but are restive and unsatisfied by the party.
That said, the latest NPR poll showed that self-identified "democratic socialists" were very engaged in these midterms and hotly disapprove of the job Trump is doing.
As the old saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This group of voters may vote in big numbers in this election as a check on Trump — 44% of poll respondents said their vote was a vote against Trump while 21% said it was a vote for him. But there's a likely clash of ideals and approach coming on the left over the next several months, as the Democratic presidential primaries.
And make no mistake, the 2028 election begins almost immediately after these midterms. It's an open election — the first one post-Trump, post-Obama-Biden, post-Clintons and Bushes. Candidates who want to make a splash and need a national boost tend to announce earlier rather than later. Think: January, February.
It's important to remember nothing is a done deal until the results are in. A lot of this is going to come down to Republican turnout.
That's why Trump has been deployed to red states to try and push and plead with his base to get out and vote. Without a big GOP turnout in these places, a one- or two-seat pick up for Democrats in the Senate can quickly turn into six or seven.
Be ready for surprises. But if Democrats don't win the House, it would be the shocker of all shockers and represent a polling error like we haven't seen this century.
Prepare to be patient
While most states and districts will be called by the time people go to bed on election night, some will not. Those lingering races may be in key places, and given the margins, particularly in the Senate, it's possible party control won't be known for days, if not weeks.
Trump is already laying the groundwork for claims of rigged elections. That's no surprise. He's done that after every election that hasn't gone his way previously in one way or another. After the 2020 election, his false claims of fraud led to the Jan. 6 siege at the Capitol.
The latest NPR poll found most people across parties overwhelmingly believe their states will run fair and accurate elections and that their preferred candidate should accept the outcome, no matter what it is.
But a quarter of Republicans said their candidate likely shouldn't accept the results. That leaves room for potential chaos and misinformation if elections are close and not decided for weeks.
Trump has been a clear drag on the GOP this cycle. You don't have to believe polls to know it's the case. Look at what Republican candidates are doing. Their mentions in ads of Trump during the primaries were sky high.
Now, they're nearly nonexistent.
Republicans will admit privately that Trump is a double-edged sword — he's needed with the base, but toxic with swing voters.
And that's been the story of Trump for the past decade — beloved by an ardent slice of the country and loathed by an even bigger one.
But this year, with the economic strain on people and the U.S.'s continued involvement in the kind of ongoing war he promised to keep the country out of, polls have found consistently over a long period of time this year that his support with many of those who crossed over to vote for him in 2024 has cratered.
That hardly sets up Trump and his party for success Tuesday and beyond — despite what will be claims of nefariousness that will hold little weight. But that doesn't mean either party will have massive majorities, and compromise will be necessary to get big things done.
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