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Less than a month before the midterms, the price of fuel is becoming a powerful election issue.
This week, President Trump issued an executive order aimed at lowering costs for frequent diesel users by making a type of fuel called "dyed diesel" more accessible through the end of the year.
Could this lower the cost of diesel? Let's get into it.
Why is diesel so expensive right now?
Prices for all kinds of oil products have risen this year because fewer ships have been getting through the Strait of Hormuz and transporting crude to refineries worldwide — but the diesel supply chain has been uniquely hit. Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian refineries have taken many of them offline, and Russia has cut back on its diesel exports. China has, too.
It's added up to a limited supply of diesel — a fuel that powers much of the industrial supply chain.
So its price has soared; the U.S. average for a gallon hit a record of $6.52 a few weeks ago. The price has eased a bit since then, but a gallon remains about $2.60 higher than this time last year, according to AAA.
When diesel prices rise, inflation is likely to follow, analysts say. Diesel powers much of the industrial supply chain, from agricultural equipment to trucks transporting goods from warehouses to grocery stores.
What is dyed diesel?
The "dyed" part means: red dye. "Red-dyed diesel is diesel with red dye in it. That's it," said Will O'Neill, principal analyst at S&P Global Energy and a follower of all things diesel.
Chemically, this diesel is almost identical to the regular kind you'd find in most gas stations. But it's a different color because it's used, and taxed, differently.
Red-dyed diesel is only meant for off-road vehicles, mainly farm and construction equipment — like a tractor that's used in a field. It's exempt from the federal tax of 24.4 cents a gallon on commercial diesel.
Drivers aren't suppose to use it in vehicles that drive on highways. People who do are subject to an IRS penalty — either $1,000 or $10 per gallon, whichever is more expensive.
The red color makes it easier to catch someone who filled up their tank with the wrong stuff. Using the red-dyed diesel is "effectively a form of tax evasion," O'Neill said.
But the new executive order says dyed diesel will be allowed on highways through the end of the year. The IRS won't penalize anyone who uses it.
Will this save people money?
It could help farmers, truckers and other workers who count on diesel to do their jobs. The executive order said this move would put money directly into their pockets "to support their vital service to our Nation."
It essentially expands the ways in which workers can use dyed diesel, sparing them the federal tax. Imagine a farmer who usually puts dyed diesel in their tractor — now they can also legally use it to fill up their cargo van, get on the highway, and take their produce to market.
Plus, a handful of states have said drivers can use red-dyed diesel on their highways. On average, state diesel taxes run about 35 cents a gallon. Allowing drivers to use dyed diesel — and skip both federal and state taxes — could add up to a savings of about 60 cents a gallon.
But because the cost of a gallon of regular diesel is now about $2.60 higher than this time last year, drivers will still be paying a higher price overall
Will this put more diesel on the market?
Technically, this will increase the total amount of diesel that people could use.
But Jaime Brito, executive director of oil markets at Dow Jones Energy, points out that this doesn't mean most people can easily access dyed diesel. It isn't available at most gas stations. "When was the last time that you went to a pumping station and you saw that one of the stations gave you the possibility to feed red diesel into your truck?" he asked.
Instead, people would need to go to a special wholesaler — or might be able to find it at gas stations in rural areas.
In an email to NPR responding to these critiques, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers wrote that the president wants to see prices fall and is taking "historic measures" to alleviate oil supply disruptions.
Can the Trump administration do anything else to lower diesel costs?
Over the past month, some politicians have floated the idea of a diesel export ban. The idea was that if the U.S. stopped sending diesel to other countries, maybe that would temporarily increase the supply in the U.S., pushing down the price.
But bottom line: refiners pushed back. It would be bad business for them.
Refiners make money by selling diesel within the U.S. and exporting it around the world, said Jacques Rousseau, who focuses on oil, natural gas, and refined products as a managing director with Clearview Energy Partners.
If there was a diesel export ban, sure, that diesel would stay in the U.S. But then, refineries would wind up with a ton of extra diesel. "Then it'll start going into storage. And then once your storage gets filled, then you have to reduce the overall production of your refinery. So then you just start producing less of everything else too because you have nowhere to put this diesel," Rousseau said.
Ultimately, that could lead to prices for refined oil products, like gasoline — and diesel — going up.
President Trump said late Friday that he was not seriously considering an export ban, and that the U.S. didn't need one anymore, as Europe just released about 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from its own stockpiles.
Analysts told NPR that the only real fix will be ending the wars in Iran and Ukraine — until there's more oil flowing freely around the world again, they said, it's hard to see the price of diesel getting much lower. " There's no silver bullet," said O'Neill. "There's no way to snap your fingers and end up with $4 diesel before the election."
"Barring the rapid and credible conclusion of the wars," he continued, "I don't think that happens."
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