STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Democrats' frustration definitely extends to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who voted no on the funding bill, the way a lot of Democrats would have liked, but was unable to keep his caucus united. Josh Barro wrote in The New York Times about this, saying that Schumer is, quote, "a convenient punching bag" and that things may work out better for Democrats than some would suggest. He hosts the podcast "Serious Trouble," and some listeners may also know him as the former host of Left, Right & Center from our member station KCRW. Josh, good morning.
JOSH BARRO: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: Good to talk with you. Do you think there is a Democratic leadership vacuum?
BARRO: I mean, look, I think - yes, I think there is a need for - you know, for new generations of leadership for the Democratic Party in Congress, but not because new leadership would have been able to produce a better - an outcome that was any better in this specific instance.
INSKEEP: What do you mean?
BARRO: Well, I mean, I - there've - this is the eighth multiday government shutdown that has happened since government shutdowns were created at the end of the Carter administration.
INSKEEP: Right.
BARRO: Before that, they used to just keep the government open, even if appropriations lapsed. And in all eight of those showdowns, there has never been a significant policy concession to the side that was forcing the shutdown, making a policy demand. It has just - it has not worked when Republicans have done it. It has not worked in the past when Democrats have done it, for example, in 2018, when they were trying to get codified protections for the DREAMers, which they did not get in that government shutdown. And in this specific instance, the reason for that is one that Democrats kept saying over and over, which is the Republicans had the majority in Congress and they had the presidency, and they did not actually need Democratic votes in order to reopen the government.
Now, obviously, you have this filibuster barrier in the Senate, but you also - I mean, earlier this year, when they passed the One Big Beautiful Bill, the filibuster was in their way and they created a new exception, effectively allowing them to do an end run around the filibuster and avoid Democratic votes. And if push had come to shove here in the end and Republicans had decided that they had run out of patience with the unpleasantness of the shutdown, which they had not really come close to yet, they would have been able to find one way or another to reopen the functions of the government without Republican - without Democratic votes. So there was no indication the Republicans were going to be anywhere close to actually giving Democrats their policy demand on the Obamacare exchanges or any other major policy area of government here. It was - the question was fold now or fold later?
INSKEEP: Well, if that was the reality, is there something to be said for the Tim Kaine case here? Which is essentially, we've made our point. We've highlighted our concerns. The public knows what side we're on, and maybe we won here.
BARRO: I - absolutely. I think, you know, first of all, they did win a small policy concession, which is that they reversed any layoffs that the president had ordered during the shutdown. And furthermore, he's not allowed to make any through the duration of this continuing resolution, which is through the end of January. And my expectation is that if there are further continuing resolutions after that, that they will extend that prohibition. They also got a couple of other minor spending items, including related to the Government Accountability Office. So this has - I mean, this has been the typical thing going back years when these shutdowns end, is you get this sort of fig leaf for the side that had forced the shutdown. But again, it's not nothing, especially in Virginia, which Kaine represents in the Senate.
You know, I mean, ultimately, they shouldn't have forced this shutdown at all because the shutdowns never work. Now, that said, I think as a political matter, there was tremendous demand on the Democratic side, not just from activists but from voters and from even Democratic office holders, to have this sort of show of a fight to give the shutdown a try and see what it would do. And so now I think we have seen that, you know, you can cause significant political pain to the president. His poll numbers did deteriorate...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
BARRO: ...Especially over the second half of October. I think they goaded the president into doing some things on food stamps that are unpopular and that might hurt Republicans even in the election next year. But at some point, you reach diminishing returns on that. And if you keep the shutdown continuing, you just have more government workers who haven't been paid, more people who haven't received their food stamps, more air traffic control towers that are unstaffed. And at some point, that becomes untenable. And so to keep that going just to get some more, you know, unpleasant news cycles for the president I don't think makes sense as a way to run the government. And again, it was not ultimately going to get them the policy change they wanted on the health insurance...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
BARRO: ...Exchanges.
INSKEEP: And if you're a Democrat, you're concerned about President Trump. You're thinking about the 2026 elections, and I'm thinking that through. I'm recalling - well, we could talk about a lot of different shutdowns, but 2013, I recall that Ted Cruz individually drove the government into a shutdown. And this was immediately analyzed as a disaster for Republicans, was going to be terrible in the following midterm elections. And of course, by the time the elections came, nobody even remembered the shutdown and Republicans did great. I suppose...
BARRO: Right.
INSKEEP: ...There's a case that they've positioned themselves - Democrats have now positioned themselves in such a way that they might be in better shape for 2026.
BARRO: Marginally better. I mean, I think I - to your point, a year is a long time from now, and I don't think that this is going to be fresh in voters' memories in either direction. I mean, I'm not sure that the food stamp fight will be fresh in their memories either a year from now, if the food stamp program is operating normally in a year.
But yes, I think that, you know, they've notched some political wins here. And, you know, to the extent - the sort of people who are angriest at Democrats about doing this are also the sort of people who would crawl across broken glass in order to vote for Democrats in an election. So, you know, that those people are displeased, I understand that. But ultimately, they're displeased because they want something they can't have, which is they want control of the policy agenda after having lost the next election. What they have to go do is they have to go vote next year, and if they get control of one or more chambers of the House of Representative - of the Congress, then they will have control over, you know, how the government spends money in 2027 and onward.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
BARRO: And that's what Democrats need to do.
INSKEEP: Just got about 20 seconds here, but I want to ask about Republicans. Do Republicans...
BARRO: Yep.
INSKEEP: ...Get any credit for declining the president's order to end the filibuster? It's one of the few times in Congress when they haven't exactly done what he said.
BARRO: Well, I mean, I don't - you know, in the long run, I don't think the filibuster is necessarily a great way to run the - our legislature. And if I was picking an area for Republicans to have a spine, I would probably pick something else. But it does demonstrate they don't do exactly what he wants.
INSKEEP: Josh Barro, writer and podcast host, thanks so much - really appreciate it.
BARRO: Absolutely. Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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