AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has so far mostly held, even as the U.S. ends its first full day of a naval blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Control of the strait remains a crucial issue, but after seven weeks of war, does Iran retain any military leverage over this vital passageway? Dana Stroul is here to talk about that. She's director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and she previously served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the Biden administration. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
DANA STROUL: Thanks for having me.
CHANG: So let's start with how Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put it. He claimed that Iran's navy is, quote, "at the bottom of the sea." OK, if we take that as truth, that Iran's navy has been knocked out, what danger might they still pose in the strait? What do you think?
STROUL: Well, there's kind of two different navies. He talked about Iran's conventional navy, and it appears accurate that all of those ships have been sunk by the U.S. military and the Israeli military. But you still have naval assets associated with the IRGC - the Revolutionary Guards - these smaller, quicker boats that can just have portable missiles that they can fire at tankers, and that's one of the huge risks right now in the strait.
CHANG: And how much of a threat are mines under there?
STROUL: There appear to be mines. The Iranians actually put out a map that if they control the strait, they will steer tankers around the mines that they laid. And we know that the U.S. military is sending minesweepers to try to clear those out. So certainly that's a risk without Iranian coordination at this moment in time.
CHANG: OK. What about the threat of proxies here? I mean, there is no damage, yes, to military infrastructure. Many of Iran's top military officials have been killed, but what about Iran's allies in Lebanon and beyond? Does Iran still retain influence over those proxies, and do they remain a real, credible threat?
STROUL: Clearly, especially with Hezbollah, you had Iran direct Hezbollah to get involved and start attacking Israel over the course of this larger war. And as of today, Iranian and Israeli negotiators meeting here in Washington, D.C., did not agree to a ceasefire. You still have Israelis having to go into bomb shelters because of Hezbollah rockets.
CHANG: Right. Well, let's talk about future talks with Iran and the U.S. The president told the New York Post that talks with Iran could restart over the next two days. This is after the failed weekend negotiations. What do you think is Iran's tolerance right now? Like, do they even need a deal? Or has their leverage over the strait only increased?
STROUL: They do need a deal, so does the United States. At the end of this war, as the fog clears from the damage, the problems that plagued Iran before the war are going to continue. They can't keep the lights on. They can't provide electricity. They've mismanaged their water. They can't protect their people. They can't stabilize their currency. And those problems are only going to compound as this naval blockade continues.
CHANG: That said, Iran's refusal to end its nuclear program has always been the central dispute of this war, right? And there's reporting out today - reporting that NPR has not independently confirmed. But the reporting says that the U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of nuclear activity, and Iran apparently countered with up to five years. So there's this huge distance between the proposals right now. What does that huge gap tell you? Like, is there even room for a deal? And how do you close that gap?
STROUL: Well, first of all, I think it's important that the two sides, Iran and the United States, met face-to-face in 21 hours this past weekend in Islamabad - is certainly a long time. But the Iranians have run this place so many times. Anyone who thought we were going to get to a closure on all of the issues and the differences on the table in one weekend certainly was shortsighted in this. So I think negotiations are likely to continue because both sides need an off-ramp. It's just going to take longer than the course of this ceasefire.
CHANG: But how do you get either side to crater?
STROUL: Well, I think there's a few things. First of all, both sides need to be prepared to make - to have some concessions and some flexibility. The Iranians need some economic relief right now, and the United States needs to demonstrate that the Strait of Hormuz is open.
CHANG: That is Dana Stroul with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Thank you very much for joining us today.
STROUL: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
